Things may be about to seriously escalate in South America. President Trump has laid an ultimatum on Venezuelan strongman dictator Nicolás Maduro. Surrender the presidency of Venezuela, leave the country, get out, and take your family with you.

El Presidente Maduro doesn’t see things that way. At least not yet.

According to the Miami Herald Washington’s warning was delivered in a phone call with Caracas. The administration offered guaranteed evacuation for Maduro, his wife Cilia Flores, and their son but only if the dictator agreed to resign on the spot.

The conversation stalled U.S. officials said and within hours Washington escalated dramatically.

The Trump administration has been deploying significant military forces into the area. Approximately 10,000 to 15,000 troops along with the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier task group and the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group have already been deployed. Various other units including several destroyers and one attack submarine are also in position.

This looks an awful lot like the Department of War is setting up to go in and basically deprive Maduro of his marbles. And Maduro doesn’t look open to the Trump administration’s offer.

The ensuing impasse according to a source was over Maduro asking for global amnesty for any crimes he and his group had committed and that was rejected.

Second they asked to retain control of the armed forces similar to what happened in Nicaragua in 1991 with Violeta Chamorro. In return they would allow free elections.

The final issue was timing as Washington demanded that Maduro resign immediately but Caracas refused.

Venezuela isn’t in a good position to resist the American forces in the area.

The Venezuelan air force has only a few operational fighters with which to defend its airspace. They have 3 or 4 aging American F-16 A/Bs and 15 to 18 Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30MK2 multirole fighters. The F-16s were purchased in the 1980s and most are grounded due to a lack of repair parts. The Sukhoi fighters were purchased from Russia in 2006.

Venezuela does have some significant ground forces including 63,000 to 100,000 soldiers in their army and as many as half a million reserves. They can field 100 to 200 obsolete Soviet-era T-72 tanks and several hundred Russian BMP-3, Chinese VN-4 and Brazilian EE-11 armored personnel carriers.

It is belaboring the obvious to point out that these Venezuelan forces would be facing some of the best-equipped and best-trained forces the United States has available.

Nicolás Maduro is almost certainly looking at his last days running Venezuela.

And here’s the thing. Unlike many times in history when a dictator is defenestrated and leaves a vacuum of power, in Venezuela there is a political opposition that is more suited to set up a true representative government.

The Plataforma Unitaria Democrática which is the Democratic Unitary Platform and the key figure and Nobel Prize awardee María Corina Machado are poised to bring Venezuela back to some semblance of sane government following Maduro’s removal.

That removal now looks to be imminent. President Trump has told Maduro in effect that we can do this the easy way or the hard way. So far Maduro seems to be choosing the hard way.

The massive military buildup sends an unmistakable message about American resolve. An aircraft carrier task group represents overwhelming firepower that Venezuela cannot hope to counter.

Maduro’s demands for amnesty and continued control of the military show he understands the precarious nature of his position. Dictators who lose power often face prosecution for crimes committed during their rule.

The rejection of amnesty means Maduro could face international tribunals if he surrenders. This gives him little incentive to leave peacefully despite the overwhelming force arrayed against him.

Trump’s ultimatum represents a dramatic shift in American policy toward Venezuela. Previous administrations imposed sanctions and issued statements but never positioned military forces for potential intervention.

The presence of María Corina Machado and the Democratic Unitary Platform means regime change could lead to genuine democracy rather than chaos. This provides justification for intervention that goes beyond simply removing a dictator.