The political shockwaves rocking Germany just got stronger. According to a new poll from Insa, the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has soared to 24% support nationally, tying with the establishment CDU/CSU “Union” — and spelling disaster for the ruling political class.

This dramatic surge comes just six weeks after federal elections, in which the CDU/CSU alliance secured 28.5% of the vote and the AfD sat at 20.8%. Since then, the center-right CDU has lost one in six of its voters, hemorrhaging support while the AfD continues its relentless climb.

Pollster Hermann Binkert didn’t mince words: “The Union is crashing dramatically.” He called it the most severe post-election collapse in public approval ever recorded during the formation of a government in modern German politics.

At the heart of the collapse is CDU leader Friedrich Merz, whose coalition negotiations have angered voters and emboldened the populist right.

Instead of respecting the conservative mandate given to him by voters fed up with leftist rule, Merz rushed to form a coalition with the defeated Social Democrats (SPD) — the very party voters rejected after the disastrous tenure of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The SPD now sits at just 16% in the polls, while Merz’s preferred leftist allies, the Greens and The Left, poll at 11% each.

In other words, the CDU is actively trying to hand power back to the very parties voters ousted.

Why? Because Merz, like every other establishment leader in Germany, refuses to partner with the AfD — no matter how much public support they earn. He’s clinging to the so-called “firewall” policy, which forbids mainstream coalitions from working with the populist right.

That ideological stubbornness is costing him — and the country.

Having tied himself to the SPD early, Merz effectively surrendered all leverage in coalition talks, giving in to leftist demands just to cobble together a government. In doing so, he has:

• Abandoned his anti-immigration rhetoric, backing away from calls for border enforcement.
• Embraced a trillion-euro spending package, betraying his promise of fiscal conservatism.
• Agreed to split this astronomical funding between defense, infrastructure, and green energy boondoggles — satisfying the Greens before they’re even in power.

According to Binkert, “Many voters are disappointed” by Merz’s sudden retreat. And they’re flocking to the AfD in response.

The AfD, for its part, has only grown stronger by staying consistent. It opposes mass immigration, rejects Germany’s green ideological crusade, and demands that German sovereignty be prioritized — not sacrificed to Brussels or Berlin elites. For a public increasingly tired of inflation, instability, and betrayal, that message is resonating.

Even more staggering is the broader context: Germany still has no government. Nearly two months after the election, Merz has yet to form a functioning coalition, leaving the country adrift while he appeases leftist demands behind closed doors.

The political elite is once again ignoring the voters — and the voters are noticing.

If this polling trend holds, it may force a reckoning in German politics. The AfD’s rise, once dismissed as a fringe protest movement, is now impossible to ignore. The more the establishment clings to its outdated moral panic over “firewalls” and “extremism,” the more ordinary Germans abandon them for a party that actually listens.

As of now, the AfD is tied for the most popular party in Germany — and they didn’t have to win the election to do it. They just had to stay true to their voters, while the establishment betrayed theirs.