A new RMG Research poll conducted for the Napolitan News Service shows President Trump's job approval at 44%, — a net rating of minus 9 points. That's the best net approval reading Trump has posted since mid-April.
Cue the sound of zero major network coverage.
The poll, conducted July 6-14 among 2,000 registered voters with a margin of error of 2.2%, shows a clear rebound from the lows Trump hit earlier this year. According to Nate Silver's polling aggregator at the Silver Bulletin, Trump's net approval climbed to roughly minus 17 overall across all polls — up from minus 17.9 the previous week and minus 18.5 a month ago. The trajectory is unmistakable: the numbers are moving in one direction, and it isn't the one the editorial boards promised.
The improvement is being driven by the groups that matter most heading into midterms. Among Republicans, Trump's favorability rose to 76%, up from 72% the prior month. His personal favorability overall ticked up to 40% from 37% in June. Most notably, his favorability among independents climbed to 29%, up from 25% — a 4-point swing in the exact demographic every cable news panel insists has abandoned him.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle didn't exactly undersell the moment. "No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," Ingle said.
Now, the numbers aren't all roses. An Echelon Insights poll from July 9-13 of 1,004 likely voters had Trump at 38% approval and 61% disapproval with a 3.6% margin of error. The Economist/YouGov survey of 1,616 adults from July 10-13 had him at 37% approval and 59% disapproval. The numbers vary depending on who's asking and how.
But that's the point. The media covers Trump's approval ratings like a funeral when the numbers are low and like a state secret when they improve. A 4-point improvement among independents doesn't make the chyron. A 4-point gain in Republican enthusiasm doesn't get a segment. The trend line bending upward across multiple pollsters over consecutive weeks gets buried under whatever outrage cycle is running that afternoon.
The Napolitan News Service survey also mirrors what a Morning Consult poll found on July 6 — that Trump's net approval had reached its highest point since April, driven by gains among Republicans and independents. Two different firms, two different methodologies, same conclusion.
For a president the press has declared politically radioactive for six straight months, the actual data tells a more complicated story. His approval among his own party is consolidating. His numbers with independents are ticking up. The overall net is improving at a pace that would generate wall-to-wall "momentum" coverage if the name on the desk were different.
Minus 9 isn't a coronation. Nobody's printing victory banners. But it's a three-month best for a president who was supposedly in freefall, posted during a stretch when the media narrative said the agenda was collapsing and the base was fracturing.